What is common between Germany, Canada and Australia?
There is lots in common between the 3 countries in 3 continents in terms of Economy, Trade partnership, Global alliances and also recently held election themes and outcomes!
Germany, Canada and Australia have in common
All 3 are Developed Economies - Per capita Income of between $ 54,000-64,000 and ranked amongst Top 20 countries
Ranked amongst the Top 15 countries in GDP
Part of Elite grouping of countries
Germany and Canada are part of G7 and NATO
All 3 are part of G20
Australia is part of QUAD and AUKUS
In all these groupings, the common link is USA
All have large trading partnership with USA
Germany - US trade in excess of US $ 250 billion, Canada - US Trade in excess of US $ 650 billion, Australia - US trade in excess of US $ 90 billion (13% of its total Trade)
For Germany and Canada, US is the largest trading partner and for Australia US is the 4th largest trading partner
US Presidential Elections
Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign focused on Tariffs, immigration and Government Efficiency apart from many other themes and also the campaign style of Mr Donald Trump. These combined brought Mr. Donald Trump victory in the US elections. Post his taking charge in January, US President has been announcing Tariffs across board against all countries, with the stated Agenda of “Make America Great Again”. The Economic fallout of the Tariffs and other actions are also being felt across the Globe in varying degrees.
But, why should we be talking of Trump’s election campaign style, US internal policies and Tariff policies in the context of Germany, Canada and Australia? In the last 3 months, Germany (27th February 2025), Canada (28th April 2025) and Australia (3rd May 2025) held national elections. There is a fair degree of similarity in the themes and outcomes and importantly the explicit/implicit linkage with President of US and US Govt. policies.
But aren’t National Elections in a country are fought on the basis of domestic issues of that country?
Common Themes in elections in these 3 countries
Strong Anti Incumbency in the months preceding the Elections
In December/January time frame, in all the 3 countries, the incumbent was expected to lose as per multiple opinion polls especially in Canada and Australia where the main opposition was leading by upto 20% over the incumbents
Amongst the key issues, cost of living topping the list, and to an extent Immigration and Economy growth
However since the Elections were held in shadow of US reciprocal tariffs, Trade relationship with US also became a theme closer to the elections, as all 3 are major trading partners of US
The major Opposition parties in all 3 countries demonstrated alignment to US President in terms of political thinking, campaign style and the rhetoric build-up similar to US Elections
Trump Effect
In Germany AfD the principal opposition was supported by US top officials - Elon Musk & VP J D Vance. Mr Musk campaigned vociferously on X for AfD
In Canada, while Mr Trump’s expressed desire to annex Canada and make it 51st state of USA was opposed by all the parties!, Poilievre the opposition leader and PM in waiting, adopted Trump tactics/style in the campaign by using Canada First and adopting other policies of anti diversity, Climate Change etc. while continuing to also talk about the local issues
In Australia the Opposition leader and also PM in waiting Peter Dutton, also adopted similar tactics as Trump and endorsed DOGE (Elon Musk department) to be replicated in Australia
In the process, the key local issues “got diluted”
Outcomes in elections in these 3 countries
In Germany the incumbent party lost the elections to its former coalition partner and AfD came 2nd. AfD is considered “Extremist” by all mainstream parties, hence the erstwhile coalition partners therefore again came together to form Government
In Canada, the incumbent Liberal party won the Elections with a swing of around 20%+ in last 2 months (After annexation threats & tariffs). The Conservatives who campaigned similar to Trump in many ways lost the Elections and their leader Poilievre lost his own seat also
In Australia, the Labor party won the Elections again despite strong anti-incumbency factor and trailing in opinion polls by 15%. Mr Peter Dutton the opposition leader lost his own seat also
So, what are the key message from these 3 country elections?
US Government and its policies on Trade was a dominant theme in National Elections of 3 countries all of whom are Strategic - Economic, Political and Security partners with US
There was direct involvement of US Government in Germany and Canada and indirect in Australia
People voted in record numbers
Germany - 82.5% turnout, highest since 1987!
Canada - 69% turnout, highest since 2015
Australia - 90% (Unofficial) similar to last election. (Australia has compulsory voting regulations and those who do not vote are fined A$20)
The principal opposition parties in all 3 countries were attempting to emulate Donald Trump policies and campaign style in the hope that it will bring them success similar to Mr. Trump
They however did not win the elections
In Canada and Australia their losses were compounded by the fact that their main leaders lost their seat
Larger vote share/Seats
In Canada, Liberals won 44% of the popular vote, higher by 11% over 2021 elections. The last time a winning party secured at least 40 per cent of the popular vote was in year 2000
In Australia, Mr. Albanese is the first PM to win re-election in over 21 years and that too with higher majority than 2022
In Canada and Australia, the opinion polls before Trump tariff announcements in had the incumbents trailing over principle opposition party by 15-20% which got completely reversed in less than 2 months
And all 3 elected leaders have met or will meet US president soon and sign trade deals to reduce tariff wars, despite whatever happened in the elections. So, did US explicit/implicit involvement in these elections end up being beneficial to US overall?
On parting Note: In Germany, while Musk/VP of US supported party AfD did not win the elections, it witnessed its highest vote share of 20%. And in a much smaller country Romania, elections held 2 days after Australia, the party with similar approach as Trump has taken lead in the first round of President elections. So, Trump effect may not be all negative for some of the aligned parties aligned
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